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Since the launch of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's Express Entry system in January, 2015 there have been 94 selection draws and tens of thousands of candidates invited to apply for permanent residence.

The first selection draw saw 779 invites with the lowest selected score being 886 points. This created a lot of concern as most of the candidates in the pool did not have a valid job offer. The following draws reinforced these fears as every candidate selected had valid a job offer.

However, great news for candidates in the Express Entry occurred when the points awarded for job offers dropped, meaning that all candidates without job offers (which are hard to get!) now have relatively higher scores. 

The other great news? Since Express Entry began, the lowest selected score has dropped drastically:

Despite the fact that the Express Entry score has dropped dramatically, Candidates who are in the Express Entry pool still have no certainty that they will be selected before their work permits expire.

The majority of candidates who remain in the pool have scores ranging over 400 points. When the score dropped to the low 400s we predicted the lowest score selected in each draw to fall less dramatically as there were thousands of candidates in this score range. That's what happened and since then the cutoff score has been hovering in the 440s for the most part.

It is very hard to predict how low the points will drop going forward, but so far the trend for 2018 is to increase the size of the draws, since more and more applicants have scores in the 440s and up. If you look at the table below, you can see a steady rise in draw size throughout the year.

 

199 Points?!?! Is that Possible?

On May 26, 2017, Draw 64 had an unbelievably low 199 points. But we should be careful. Draw 64 was for the Federal Skilled Trades (FST) program only. Since that time there have been three other FST-only draws, in November 2017 and May 2018 and, most recently in September 2018. The points threshold is so low because some requirements are lower for the FST to allow badly needed tradespeople to immigrate to Canada. The threshold of around 200 points is determined by IRCC staff looking at the pool and seeing there were a number of tradespeople in the pool with scores between 200 and 400 points. These tradespeople were likely deemed to have enough skills to function in Canada. It is unlikely that this low threshold will happen again. It's also extremely unlikely that a 200-point threshold will ever be available to FSW and CEC applicants.

Worse news is the number of applicants currently in the pool with at least 440 points (the cutoff of the latest draw). There are nearly 30,000 applicants in the pool with at least 400 points, which means it's extremely unlikely the cutoff score will drop down to 400 points any time soon.

Check the current state of the Express Entry Pool

There are options to update and increase your Express Entry score. If you have a foreign education credential you can have your credential assessed and equivalated to the Canadian level. Your spouse or common-law partner may also gain you additional points on their age, language proficiency, education and Canadian work experience.

Also, make sure your profile is current! You will need to set up a new profile if you are not Invited to Apply within one year.

Get Help Now

 

Draws This Year

Draw Number of invitations issued CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited
#101 - October 3, 2018 3,900
(Tied Year High)
445 points
#100 -September 24, 2018 400
(Federal Skilled Trades ONLY)
284 points
(Federal Skilled Trades ONLY)
#99 - September 19, 2018 3,500 441 points
#98 - September 5, 2018 3,900
(Tied Year High)
440 points
(Tied Year Low)
#97 - August 22, 2018 3,750 440 points
(Tied Year Low)
#96 - August 8, 2018 3,750 440 points
(
Tied Year Low)
#95 - July 25, 2018 3,750 441 points
#94 - July 11, 2018 3,750 442 points
#93 - June 25, 2018 3,750 442 points
#92 - June 13, 2018 3,750 451 points
#91 - May 30, 2018 700
(PNPs and Federal Skilled Trades ONLY)
288 points
(PNPs and Federal Skilled Trades ONLY)
#90 - May 23, 2018 3,500 440 points
(Year Low)
#89 - May 9, 2018 3,500 441 points
#88 - April 25, 2018 3,500 441 points
#87 - April 11, 2018 3,500 444 points
#86 - March 26, 2018 3,000 446 points
#85 - March 14, 2018 3,000 456 points
(Year High)
#84 - February 21, 2018 3,000 442 points
#83 - February 7, 2018 3,000 442 points
#82 - January 24, 2018 2,750 444 points
#81 - January 10, 2018 2,750 446 points

For all historical draws, click here.


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